The model ranks him about 1.6 rounds earlier than the market drafts him (19 slots in a 12-team league). In practice he's often still there later than our board says he should go.
Our model ranks every player on projected value over replacement, adjusted for the offense he actually plays in — so when a player changes teams, his volume gets re-priced rather than carried over. Market ADP is where the field is actually drafting him. The gap between the two is the only thing that matters on draft day: it tells you whether you need to reach, or whether you can wait.
Projections are estimates, not predictions. A gap is a disagreement, not a guarantee — sometimes the market knows something a usage model doesn't.
This page shows the rank. The Draft Kit shows the exact VOR value, tiers, projections and market ADP on every row — plus the draft-day workbook.
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