The market drafts him about 1.6 rounds earlier than our board ranks him (19 slots). Not a claim he's bad — the price already assumes a lot of what could go right.
Our model ranks every player on projected value over replacement, adjusted for the offense he actually plays in — so when a player changes teams, his volume gets re-priced rather than carried over. Market ADP is where the field is actually drafting him. The gap between the two is the only thing that matters on draft day: it tells you whether you need to reach, or whether you can wait.
Projections are estimates, not predictions. A gap is a disagreement, not a guarantee — sometimes the market knows something a usage model doesn't.
This page shows the rank. The Draft Kit shows the exact VOR value, tiers, projections and market ADP on every row — plus the draft-day workbook.
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